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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
737.50
-25.00
616.00
+5.00
May 13
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	737.50	-25.00	616.00	+5.00	May 13

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
463.72	+4.86	534.39	+5.29	722.76	+6.59	May 13

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	425	418	+7	465	472	-7	611	603	+8	May 13
Singapore	440	426	+14	520	510	+10	602	636	-34	May 13
Fujairah	422	465	-43	509	518	-9	715	789	-74	May 13
Houston	397	436	-39	462	549	-87	610	660	-50	May 13

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Latest News
- 2025-05-14
  Oil prices hold near two-week highs on trade war reprieve, weaker dollar
  Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures inched down 10 cents, or 0.15%, by 0008... Read more Oil prices held near two-week highs in early trading on Wednesday, supported by an agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower their reciprocal tariffs and a falling U.S. dollar.
  Brent crude futures inched down 10 cents, or 0.15%, by 0008 GMT to $66.53 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 7 cents, or 0.11%, to $63.60. Both benchmarks climbed more than 2.5% in the previous session.
  The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.67% on Tuesday after data showed U.S. inflation was lower than expected. A weaker dollar makes oil less expensive for holders of other currencies, increasing demand.
  The two largest economies on Monday agreed to pause their trade war for at least 90 days, with the U.S. cutting tariffs to 30% from 145% and China slashing duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%.
  Prices had climbed more than $1.60 a barrel on Tuesday following the agreement, settling up nearly 3%.
  Rystad energy analysts said in a note that the agreement had "eroded some demand side pessimism," though cautioning that there could be lingering impact from the tariffs despite the rollbacks.
  The market was supported by reported declines in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, a sign of resilient fuel demand.
  Gasoline inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 3.7 million barrels, market sources said on condition of anonymity, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. However, crude stocks rose by 4.3 million barrels.
  
  Analysts polled by Reuters expected gasoline stocks to fall by 600,000 barrels, distillate inventories to rise by about 100,000 barrels and crude stocks to fall by 1.1 million barrels.
  Official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).
  The market is watching U.S. President Donald Trump’s trip to the Gulf. He kicked off the visit Tuesday with an appearance at an investment forum in Riyadh, where he announced that the U.S. would lift longstanding sanctions on Syria and secured a $600 billion pledge from Saudi to invest in the U.S.
  Rystad Energy’s global head of commodity markets Mukesh Sahdev said that preventing oil price spikes over the summer travel season will be a key part of the president’s agenda on the trip, adding that the U.S. could take advantage of lower prices to buy more Middle East crude for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  "The big unknown for the market is how U.S. actions related to Iran, Russia and Venezuela will result in supply disruptions or additions," Sahdev said.
  
  The U.S. on Tuesday imposed fresh sanctions on some 20 companies it said were helping Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff and its front company, Sepehr Energy, send Iranian oil to China.
  The sanctions come following a fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks in Oman aimed at addressing disputes over Iran’s nuclear programme. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-05-14
  Chevron, Shell, BP Target Egypt in LNG Power Play
  The race has been on between the world’s leading powers to secure as much of the globe’s current and future liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Oil and gas prices started to rise quickly from that... Read more The race has been on between the world’s leading powers to secure as much of the globe’s current and future liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Oil and gas prices started to rise quickly from that point, driving inflation higher across the West and threatening economic slowdowns as interest rates began to rise to curb the spiralling prices. As sanctions hit Russia’s previously huge energy supplies to Europe, LNG became the swing energy source to substitute for these lost resources, as analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Unlike oil and gas moved through pipelines, LNG does not require years and vast expense to build out a network of supporting infrastructure, nor the complex political and economic negotiations with the governments of all the countries whose territory those pipelines cross. Instead, LNG can be bought quickly in the spot market if required and moved fast on ships to wherever it is wanted. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West found it had been wrong-footed by China which had sewn up enormous LNG supplies in very long-term contracts from major supplies, including Qatar, having evidently received warning of such an event from the Kremlin around one year before, as also detailed in the book. It was at this point that the West’s focus shifted to Egypt, and a slew of recent deals confirm that the efforts to turn the country into one of the world’s leading LNG hubs remain as strong as ever.
  
  In recent days, various local news reports have flagged the likely award of another major set of oil and gas exploration rights to U.S. supermajor Chevron for the West Star site in Egypt’s northeastern Mediterranean region. The firm was one of the early leaders in the West’s move into Egypt’s oil and gas sector, along with the UK’s BP and Shell, and Italy’s Eni. Most recently, Chevon and Eni discovered a potentially huge offshore gas field in its concession area in the Red Sea focused on the Nargis-1 well in the eastern Nile Delta, about 60 kilometres north of the Sinai Peninsula, which followed the announcement in December 2022 that it had hit at least 99 billion cubic metres of gas in the same exploration well. Chevron also now operates the huge Leviathan and Tamar fields in Israel and the Aphrodite project offshore Cyprus. In the same vein, British oil and gas giant Shell is to begin the development of the tenth phase of Egypt’s Nile Delta offshore West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) concession in the Mediterranean Sea. In the meantime, BP recently said it will invest US$3.5 billion in the exploration and development of Egypt’s gas fields in the coming three years, with the amount subject to a doubling in size if the exploration activity yields new discoveries. This looks distinctly possible, as Egypt holds a very conservatively estimated 1.8 trillion cubic metres (Tcm), although the final figure could be considerably more than this, according to E.U. energy security sources spoken to by OilPrice.com in recent months. According to global energy analysis firm Wood Mackenzie, the net present value of the remaining East Med sites is US$19 billion.
  
  Egypt is also the only country in the Eastern Mediterranean gas hotspot region with operational LNG export capacity, which dovetails into the West’s ambitious plans to expand this capability. Crucially, as well is that its geographic positioning means that it controls the major global shipping chokepoint of the Suez Canal, through which around 10% of the world’s oil and LNG is moved. It also controls the vital Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, which runs from the Ain Sokhna terminal in the Gulf of Suez, near the Red Sea, to Sidi Kerir port, west of Alexandria in the Mediterranean Sea. This is a crucial alternative to the Suez Canal for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. The Suez Canal's importance to the global energy sector is further boosted by the fact that it is one of the very few major transit points that is not controlled by China. More specifically, Beijing already has effective control over the Strait of Hormuz through the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The same deal also gives China a hold over the Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which commodities are shipped upwards through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal before moving into the Mediterranean and then westwards. This has been achieved as it lies between Yemen (the Houthis having long been supported by Iran) and Djibouti (over which China has also established a stranglehold through debts connected to its multi-generational power-grab project - the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’).
  
  More broadly, from a geopolitical perspective, Egypt occupies a uniquely influential position in the Arab world. For decades, it has been seen by the Arab world as the leading proponent of the ‘Pan-Arab’ ideology that believes enduring strength can only be found in the political, cultural, and socioeconomic unity of Arabs across the different countries that emerged after the two World Wars. The philosophy’s most powerful recent proponent was Egypt’s president from 1954 to 1970, Gamal Nasser. Among the most palpable signs of this movement at the time were the formation of the United Arab Republic union formed between Egypt and Syria from 1958 to 1961, the formation of OPEC in 1960, the series of conflicts with neighbouring Israel over the period, and then the 1973/74 oil embargo. By bringing this leader of the Arab world on side, the U.S. hopes to offset, at least in part, the negative geopolitical impact of long-term ally Saudi Arabia having been lost to the China-Russia bloc. Politically and historically, Egypt is at least as much of a leader in the Arab world as Saudi Arabia has ever been.
  
  Given these factors, Egypt’s intertwined debt and currency problems that were in large part caused by this enormous wave of gas sector development will continue to be addressed by the West, according to a senior source in the European Union’s (E.U.’s) energy security complex. “[Egypt’s] ability to pay down its debt to Western [oil and gas] developers deteriorated in the aftermath of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but several support mechanisms have been put in place to alleviate this, and there is more to come if required,” he said. Most notable here is the 6 March 2024 facility granted to Egypt by the IMF to expand its US$8 billion financial support package. The fourth review of this Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement was completed this March, allowing Egypt to draw about US$1.2 billion. Additionally, there remain further offers of financial aid open from the World Bank and from the E.U. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  Why India Could Face Higher Oil Prices Amid Pakistan Tensions
  India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday, preventing escalating tensions from developing into a full-scale conflict–for now. The Indian military had reportedly deployed surface-to-air missiles near its western border as tensions flared following... Read more India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday, preventing escalating tensions from developing into a full-scale conflict–for now. The Indian military had reportedly deployed surface-to-air missiles near its western border as tensions flared following a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, which killed 26 people.
  
  Although U.S. President Donald Trump later claimed credit for brokering the ceasefire via Truth Social, Indian officials clarified that the agreement was the result of direct talks between India and Pakistan’s military leadership, with Pakistan initiating the dialogue. Initially, the Trump administration appeared hesitant to intervene. President Trump commented that he “hoped it would end very quickly,” and there was little diplomatic movement until the threat of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors became too serious to ignore.
  
  India described its missile strikes as targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure, not aimed at civilians or Pakistan’s military. However, the situation raised widespread concern over regional stability, especially with both nations possessing nuclear weapons. “At this point, the fear for everyone was a nuclear war between two arch rivals,” said a Pakistani security official.
  
  Beyond the humanitarian stakes, there are major energy implications. India is the largest crude oil importer in the region, and any prolonged conflict could threaten its access to energy resources.
  
  “While the tensions have wide-ranging and serious humanitarian implications, it also brings to the forefront the importance of emergency preparedness in the energy sector,” noted a Rystad Energy market report.
  
  Energy strategist Umud Shokri added, “While India primarily imports crude oil by sea from the Middle East, regional tensions can disrupt key maritime routes. Increased shipping risks and higher freight charges may lead to supply chain disturbances.”
  
  Shokri warned that a sustained conflict could trigger a $10 per barrel increase in crude prices, which would widen India’s current account deficit by 0.5% of GDP.
  
  India also faces ongoing uncertainty regarding trade relations with the U.S. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, the U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from India. This led to a 46% drop in Indian steel exports to the U.S. over the following year. Earlier this year, Indian financial firm Motilal Oswal suggested that renewed tariff threats could push India to strengthen domestic industries and boost local production.
  
  Oil remains a major vulnerability for India’s economy. The country imports most of its oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. In fiscal year 2023–24, India spent approximately $132.4 billion on crude oil imports, a 16% year-over-year decline due to lower global prices and increased discounted imports from Russia.
  
  Analysts expect India to surpass China as the top driver of global oil demand growth. “China’s role as a global oil demand growth engine is fading fast,” said Emma Richards, a senior analyst at Fitch Solutions, to The Times of India. She explained that China’s share of emerging market oil demand growth could drop from nearly 50% to 15%, while India’s could double to 24%. India’s population growth and a less aggressive green energy transition compared to China are expected to keep its oil consumption rising for years to come.
  
  Meanwhile, India may have untapped oil resources of its own.
  
  Four of India’s largest unexplored sedimentary basins—Mahanadi, Andaman, Bengal, and Kerala-Konkan—could hold up to 22 billion barrels of oil equivalent. This is a significant figure, though still smaller than proven reserves in places like the U.S. Permian Basin. India’s state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has announced plans to invest over $10 billion in deepwater exploration. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently stated that India’s oil and gas Exploration & Production (E&P) sector represents a $100 billion investment opportunity by 2030.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  MABUX: Global bunker market to continue upward movement on May 14.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— continued its upward trajectory on May 13, marking the third consecutive day of gains: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 463.72 (+4.86) VLSFO - USD/MT – 534.39... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— continued its upward trajectory on May 13, marking the third consecutive day of gains:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 463.72 (+4.86)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 534.39 (+5.29)
  MGO - USD/MT – 722.76 (+6.59)
  
  As of May 13, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP), reflected the following trends across key global ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore were in the overcharge zone, though premiums narrowed by $4 and $5, respectively. Fujairah and Houston continued to show undercharge trends, with discounts increasing by $1 at both ports. Rotterdam remained close to a 100% MBP-DBP correlation.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore remained in the overcharge zone, though premiums narrowed by $4 and $5, respectively. Fujairah and Houston continued to show undercharge trends, with discounts increasing by $1 at both ports. Rotterdam remained close to a 100% MBP-DBP correlation.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam was the only overcharged port, with the premium unchanged. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston continued to be undercharged, with discounts widening by $7, $11 and $9, respectively. Rotterdam’s MDI remained near the 100% MBP-DBP correlation threshold.
  
  The global bunker market is expected to maintain its steady upward momentum on May 14, with projected price increases as follows: 380 HSFO – plus 3-8 USD/MT, VLSFO - plus 3-8 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus 5-10 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-05-14
  Libya Takes Another Step Towards All-Out Civil War Amid Oil ‘Boom’
  What was marketed as a fragile return to order in Libya has, once again, been exposed as a mirage. On May 12, Tripoli plunged into chaos following the reported killing of Abdul Ghani al-Kikli (aka “Gheniwa”), the commander who runs the powerful SSA (Stability... Read more What was marketed as a fragile return to order in Libya has, once again, been exposed as a mirage. On May 12, Tripoli plunged into chaos following the reported killing of Abdul Ghani al-Kikli (aka “Gheniwa”), the commander who runs the powerful SSA (Stability Support Apparatus), one of Libya’s many militias whose patronage is necessary for either of the two clans that control the country’s east and west in a bitter rivalry.
  
  The gunfire and shelling that started to tear through Tripoli on Monday wasn’t simply on the level of an isolated skirmish; this is a major tremor along a fast-widening geopolitical fault line that won’t just expose Libyan oil to more hijacking. For readers of Oilprice.com’s exclusive weekly newsletter, all will already be clear: The fragile system of mutually beneficial corruption that’s kept the two clans from launching the next civil war is cracking.
  
  For oil investors, it may be time for a rethink, and a recalculation of how much money they are willing to risk on the longer game here.
  
  While global energy majors have expressed a great deal of excitement about Libya’s potential oil production rebound, the resurgence of clashes in Tripoli make clear what seasoned analysts have warned all along: Libya is still one political misfire away from collapsing into violent fragmentation. For oil investors, the timing of these clashes couldn’t be worse. This is not a market opportunity—it’s a geopolitical storm in the making.
  
  The images out of Abu Salim—a Tripoli district that has long served as Gheniwa’s stronghold—were grim. Clashes between the SSA and the Misrata-based 444 Brigade intensified within hours of news of his death. Multiple reports, including from Libya Observer and Al Jazeera, indicate that armored vehicles and heavy weaponry were deployed deep into residential areas. By nightfall, civilian life in Tripoli had ground to a halt, with the UN issuing an urgent call for calm, warning of “significant risks to civilians.”
  
  Gheniwa’s SSA is one of many militias co-opted into state structures by the Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. His death leaves a power vacuum that other groups will waste no time attempting to fill, on behalf of General Khalifa Haftar, who rules the east and largely controls oil production and exports, if not oil revenues.
  
  Haftar, Dbeibah, and the Weaponization of Institutions
  
  While the Tripoli clashes played out in real time, another headline flew mostly under the radar: the public prosecution ordered the detention of top executives at Al-Madar, Libya’s largest mobile company. Ostensibly, the arrests target corruption. But in Libya’s hyper-politicized environment, few believe this is mere legal housekeeping.
  
  The move reflects an ongoing pattern, which is part of Dbeibah's broader campaign to neutralize institutions that could serve rival power centers (in other words, the Haftar clan). According to Libya Herald, the timing of the Al-Madar arrests aligns with increased internal competition between the GNU (Dbeiba’s Government of National Unity) and rival institutions in the east, most notably the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Haftar. Control over communications, just like control over oil terminals and military infrastructure, is a lever of power.
  
  As The Washington Institute poignantly noted earlier this week (and oil investors should pay attention), Libya is not governed by institutions. It is governed by men with militias, who wear the uniforms of state authority when convenient, and discard them when it suits political gain. The competition between Dbeibah and Haftar is not merely political; it is tribal, economic, and ultimately existential. Each side seeks not power-sharing, but monopoly, which means that the “benefit-sharing” deal that has been in place for the past five years was simply a period of regrouping, with the aid of corruption on both sides. Once those arsenals are full, the deal is off.
  
  Big Oil’s Blunder: Underestimating Libya’s Fragility
  
  OilPrice.com has recently highlighted the troubling trend of international oil companies showing renewed interest in Libya, buoyed by the country’s ambitious production targets. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) is eyeing a boost in daily output to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026, which depends on stability.
  
  The political framework supporting Libya’s oil sector is built on quicksand. Smuggling syndicates, militia-run fuel rackets, and foreign mercenary networks (including recently rebranded Russian mercenaries in the east) continue to undermine any efforts at national coherence. Even technical staff at key export terminals operate under de facto militia rule.
  
  The fatal flaw in investor optimism is that oil, unlike minerals or digital assets, requires physical infrastructure and physical security. Libya has neither. Every pipeline, refinery, and offshore platform sits within a zone of contested control. And with the central government unable (or unwilling) to disarm its own proxies, the industry is one factional dispute away from collapse. The assassination of a key Dbeibah militia commander is just that.
  
  Complicating the picture further is the growing role of Russia, particularly in Haftar-controlled territories. Russian-linked interests have not only entrenched themselves in eastern oil facilities but are also creating an alternative power architecture in coordination with Haftar’s camp.
  
  Moscow’s goal is not just energy influence; it’s seeking access to the southern Mediterranean. For Western investors and governments, that should be a red flag. The same energy fields that are supposed to fuel European stability may, under current conditions, empower a Russia-aligned parallel state.
  
  Where does that leave Libya, then? And who will come out on top?
  
  That depends not simply on which militias each clan has won over with patronage schemes … It depends on which external powers will step into the fray more visibly than they are now.
  
  Washington is busy with tariff warfare, Ukraine and Gaza. It’s largely stepped aside as Syria’s new post-Assad regime scrambles to secure power and external forces (Turkey, Israel, UAE, among others) stake their claims and attempt to secure the fallout. It’s also been absent in Libya for the most part, while Russia homes in on key Libyan outposts in the east. America isn’t playing geopolitics anymore. It’s only business. The only deal Trump has attempted to cut with Libya recently is to absorb illegal immigrants being deported from the U.S., where they will end up (should it materialize) fighting a civil war in which the U.S. has zero stake, but which will play an influential role in the future balance of power. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  Upside for Oil Prices Remains Limited Despite U.S.-China Trade Deal
  - A string of deals targeting large-cap electricity generation companies across the US has put this year’s to date power sector M&A tally to $51 billion, on track for a new all-time high. - Up until now, the highest number of US generation mergers... Read more - A string of deals targeting large-cap electricity generation companies across the US has put this year’s to date power sector M&A tally to $51 billion, on track for a new all-time high.
  
  - Up until now, the highest number of US generation mergers and acquisitions took place immediately after COVID-19 hit, when a total of $55.7 billion was spent on corporate takeovers.
  
  - AI’s increasing need for power generation is amplifying the market’s reaction to these deals - NRG Energy’s stock surged a whopping 26% on Monday after it announced its acquisition of LS Power.
  
  - Buying operational generation capacity is significantly cheaper than building new gas-powered plants - the cost of new gas capacity has tripled from $800 per kW to $2400 per kW in less than two years.
  
  Market Movers
  
  - Permian-focused US upstream firm APA (NASDAQ:APA) agreed to divest $608 million worth of assets in the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin to Permian Resources, located across 13,320 net acres.
  
  - US energy firm NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) agreed to purchase power generation assets from investment firm LS Power in a deal valued at $12 billion, greatly expanding its natural gas-powered generation.
  
  - US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is set to invest $1.5 billion into the Usan oil field in deepwater Nigeria, producing since 2012 and seeing output decline to 33,000 b/d of oil this year, down from 45,000 b/d two years ago.
  
  - US asset management giant Blackstone (NYSE:BX) is reportedly in talks to buy New Mexico and Texas-focused utility firm TXNM Energy in a deal that could be valued north of $11 billion, including debt.
  
  Tuesday, May 13, 2025
  
  Even if for the next 90 days, fears of a global economic collapse have eased following US-China talks and subsequent reductions in import tariffs. With OPEC+ still keen to flood the market with oil, the pricing upside was somewhat limited. ICE Brent settled around $66 per barrel with no immediate prospect for a breakout towards $70 per barrel.
  
  US, China Put Trade War on a Pause. The United States and China agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs by 115% on most goods, marking a 90-day trade war pause, with US goods now only triggering a 10% tariff in China, whilst Chinese goods would come with a 30% levy for American importers.
  
  Saudi State Coffers Suffer Amidst Low Prices. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) reported a 4.6% quarterly drop in its Q1 profits to $26.01 billion, citing lower sales and higher operating costs, but it kept its giant $85.4 billion dividend for this year intact.
  
  US SPRs to Fill Up Again. The US Congress’ Energy and Commerce Committee suggested including $1.5 billion in the 2026 fiscal year budget to replenish and maintain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, equivalent to 22 million barrels of government purchases and 220 million maintenance costs.
  
  Norway’s Troubled Oilfield Down Again. Following a four-month delay in commissioning, Equinor’s (NYSE:EQNR) 220,000 b/d capacity Johan Castberg oil field in the Arctic Barents Sea halted operations due to an oil leak from a heat exchanger, set to resume pumping by the end of this week.
  
  Oman Wants to Launch a New Gas Bonanza. The government of Oman is seeking to sell a part of its natural gas assets to garner at least $8 billion, offering minority stakes in fields contained in Block 6, the country’s most oil-prolific acreage and some 10.7 TCf of untapped non-associated gas reserves.
  
  French Oil Major to Make Indonesia U-Turn. France’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is reportedly negotiating a farm-in to Petronas’ Bobara offshore project in Indonesia, potentially marking its return to the Southeast Asian country seven years after it sold all its assets there.
  
  Resolution Copper Delayed Again. Less than a month after President Trump restarted the land transfer process to launch Rio Tinto’s (NYSE:RIO) giant Resolution Copper mine, the largest deposit of copper ore in the US, a district judge temporarily blocked the move, saying it would irreparably damage the Apache people.
  
  Venezuelan Oil Is Now Disguised as Brazilian. According to Chinese sources, independent refiners across China are now buying Venezuelan crude oil disguised as mixed bitumen from Brazil (which Brazil doesn’t export), with customs-reported data already indicating a total worth of $1.2 billion.
  
  China Opens Taps on Rare Earth Exports. Beijing has issued export permits to at least four rare earth magnet producers, the first such allowance since China’s authorities restricted exports last month, with reports suggesting suppliers of German carmaker Volkswagen (ETR:VOW) received a licence, too.
  
  Better Saudi Prices Keep Asian Demand Robust. After Chinese refiners nominated a one-year high of 48 million barrels of Saudi term supplies in May, next month is set to see the same level of crude exports with private refiners Hengli and Rongsheng maximizing their purchases as long as prices remain low.
  
  Namibia’s Oil Craze Still Years Away. Namibia’s petroleum commissioner, Maggy Shino, said that French major TotalEnergies plans to take an FID on the 150,000 b/d Venus project, potentially the first oil field in the country’s portfolio, only by late 2026, delayed by more than two years.
  
  Supply Discipline Rekindles Bullish Solar Spirit. Solar stocks have jumped by more than 10% on Tuesday amidst widespread speculation that China’s top solar wafer producers Daqo New Energy and Tongwei would jointly curb production, concurrently targeting a new price range that would suit most suppliers.
  
  Vietnam Wants to Double Down on Nuclear. The government of Vietnam wants to add a combined capacity of 6.4 GW between 2030 and 2035, using President To Lam’s visit to Russia to preliminarily agree with Moscow on the construction of a nuclear power plant, simultaneously reaching out to South Korea and France. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  Oil Bulls Balk At Surprise Crude Oil Inventory Build
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 4.287 million barrels in the week ending May 9—a shock after analysts had estimated a 2.4-million-barrel draw. The API reported a 4.49 million barrel... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 4.287 million barrels in the week ending May 9—a shock after analysts had estimated a 2.4-million-barrel draw. The API reported a 4.49 million barrel inventory decrease in the prior week.
  
  So far this year, crude oil inventories are up more than 23 million barrels, according to Oilprice calculations of API data.
  
  Earlier this week, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) climbed 500,000 barrels to 399.6 million barrels in the week ending May 9. Inventory levels in the SPR are hundreds of millions shy of the levels in inventory prior to the SPR withdrawal that took place under the Biden Administration.
  
  At 3:35 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up $1.65 (+2.54%) on the day, landing at $66.61—a $4.50 per barrel recovery from this time last week.
  
  WTI was also trading up on the day, by $1.79 (+2.89%) at $63.74—a $3.70 per barrel increase over last week’s level.
  
  Gasoline inventories fell in the week ending May 9, by 1.374 million barrels, after falling by 1.97 million barrels in the week prior. As of last week, gasoline inventories were already 3% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories were also down this week, by 3.675 million barrels. In the week prior, distillate inventories had risen by 2.24 million barrels. Distillate inventories were already about 13% below the five-year average as of the week ending May 2, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventories—the benchmark crude stored and traded at the key delivery point for U.S. futures contracts in Cushing, Oklahoma—fell by 850,000 barrels, the API data showed, on top of last week’s 854,000 barrel dip.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  Oil Surges 3% on U.S.-China Tariff Truce and Demand Optimism
  Oil prices jumped 3% on Tuesday after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, easing fears of another front in the global trade war and improving the outlook for economic growth—and by extension, oil demand. Brent crude was last... Read more Oil prices jumped 3% on Tuesday after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, easing fears of another front in the global trade war and improving the outlook for economic growth—and by extension, oil demand.
  
  Brent crude was last trading at $66.79, up $1.83 (+2.82%) in afternoon trade, while WTI climbed to $63.85, a gain of $1.90 (+3.07%). The rally marks a strong reversal from earlier this month, when prices slumped on supply pressure and weak macro sentiment.
  
  The tariff reprieve gives both sides room to de-escalate, but analysts warn that the core issues—especially U.S. demands on Chinese industrial overcapacity and fentanyl enforcement—remain unresolved. Still, the pause was enough to juice market optimism, particularly after weeks of limp trading.
  
  With refining capacity still constrained in both the U.S. and Europe, product cracks are holding firm despite OPEC+ production ticking up by 411,000 bpd in May.
  
  The rally also reflects growing bets that summer demand—especially for gasoline and jet fuel—will hold up better than expected. That, combined with geopolitical friction and seasonal maintenance, is keeping traders on edge.
  
  With both momentum and fundamental support building, bulls may try to push prices toward April highs. But if China talks stall—or supply outpaces refining capacity—this bounce could be short-lived.
  
  For now, though, crude is climbing—and the tariff truce is giving the market just enough hope to run with. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  Iran’s Sanction-Skirting Oil Network Draws New U.S. Fire
  The U.S. State Department rolled out another round of sanctions Tuesday targeting an Iranian oil smuggling network allegedly responsible for funneling billions in crude oil sales to China on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff. The scheme, operated... Read more The U.S. State Department rolled out another round of sanctions Tuesday targeting an Iranian oil smuggling network allegedly responsible for funneling billions in crude oil sales to China on behalf of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff. The scheme, operated through front company Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars, is accused of bankrolling Iran’s ballistic missile development, nuclear ambitions, and its web of proxy militias—from Red Sea Houthi attacks to assaults on the U.S. Navy and Israel.
  
  “As long as Iran devotes its illicit revenues to funding attacks on the United States and our allies, supporting terrorism around the world, and pursuing other destabilizing actions, we will continue to use all the tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable, said the Department’s press statement.
  
  The action, taken under Executive Order 13224 and its amendments, is the latest enforcement move under National Security Presidential Memorandum 2—a Trump-era policy still guiding a maximum-pressure approach to Iran. It comes just weeks after the Treasury designated Chinese teapot refiner Shandong Shengxing for purchasing over $1 billion in crude from an IRGC-QF-linked front.
  
  The shadow fleet facilitating these trades—tankers switching flags, faking manifests, and vanishing from tracking systems—has drawn increasing scrutiny. But enforcement has struggled to keep pace with the sheer volume of illicit flows. Chinese imports of Iranian crude hit a record 1.8 million bpd in March, contributing to a 20-month high in overall oil inflows.
  
  While sanctions are meant to cut off Iran’s oil revenues entirely, real-world results have been more muddled. Tehran continues exporting, albeit at steep discounts, and China appears more emboldened than deterred. Still, U.S. officials argue that starving Iran’s military-industrial complex remains non-negotiable.
  
  Market watchers will be eyeing whether the crackdown finally crimps volumes—or just adds another layer to the world’s most lucrative game of maritime hide-and-seek.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-05-14
  U.S. and Saudi Arabia Sign Major Energy Deals During Trump’s Visit
  The United States and Saudi Arabia signed an economic partnership agreement and a number of energy deals between Saudi oil giant Aramco and American companies during the visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to the Kingdom on Tuesday. President Trump... Read more The United States and Saudi Arabia signed an economic partnership agreement and a number of energy deals between Saudi oil giant Aramco and American companies during the visit of U.S. President Donald Trump to the Kingdom on Tuesday.
  
  President Trump signed the economic cooperation agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and co-chaired the Saudi–U.S. Investment Forum 2025 in Riyadh.
  
  During the forum, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Aramco, said that the Saudi state giant is signing today a $3.4-billion agreement to expand the Motiva refinery in Texas to integrate chemicals production.
  
  Motiva Enterprises, controlled by Saudi Aramco, operates the huge Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. The refinery is the second largest in the United States by operable capacity, after Marathon Petroleum’s 631,000-bpd refinery at Galveston Bay, Texas, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as of January 1, 2024.
  
  Currently, the Motiva refinery produces conventional gasoline, commercial aviation fuel, ultra low sulfur diesel, export (high cetane) diesel, and Texas low emissions diesel.
  
  Aramco is also signing on Tuesday agreements with U.S. companies NextDecade and Sempra, Nasser said at the forum.
  
  “The US is really a good place to put our investment,” Nasser noted.
  
  Aramco is signing a memorandum of understanding with Sempra to receive about 6.2 million tons per year of LNG, the executive added.
  
  Last year, Aramco signed a non-binding agreement to buy LNG from Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project and potentially acquire 25% in the project’s Phase 2. Under the non-binding Heads of Agreement (HoA), Aramco and Sempra discussed a 20-year sale and purchase agreement for LNG offtake of 5.0 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 expansion project.
  
  The Saudi-U.S. investment forum was also attended by Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, and Elon Musk, among other prominent U.S. entrepreneurs. Source: Oilprice.com